SPA personnel are engaged in cutting edge research and projects in several areas. This page provides publications related to the following topics:
Scroll down or click on a link to go to publications in each of these areas.
Business continuity, risk mitigation, loss estimation, and performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE)
Porter, K., 2017. Mitigation still saves: a broader reexamination of natural hazard mitigation. Building Innovation 2017 Conference, Washington DC, 10-12 Jan 2017. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2017-MMC-MSv2.pdf
Porter, K., 2016. Not safe enough: the case for resilient seismic design. Submitted to 2016 SEAOC Convention Maui HI, October 12 – 15, 2016. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2016-SEAOC-Resilience.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2016. Safe enough? A building code to protect our cities as well as our lives. Earthquake Spectra 32 (2), 677-695. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2016-EQS-Safe-Enough.pdf
Corotis, R.B, H. Bonstrom, and K. Porter, 2012. Overcoming public and political challenges for natural hazard risk investment decisions. Invited keynote, Proc. Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications (APSSRA12), Singapore, 23-25 May 2012. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Corotis-2012-APSSRA-Public-Decisions.pdf
Porter, K.A., and K. Cobeen, 2012. Informing a retrofit ordinance: a soft-story case study. Proc. 2012 Structures Congress, Chicago IL, March 29-31, 2012. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2012-SSSC12-CAPSS.pdf
Porter, K.A. and K. Ramer, 2012. Estimating earthquake-induced failure
probability and downtime of critical
facilities. Journal of Business Continuity and Emergency Planning, 5 (4), 352-364, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2012-JBCEP-Downtime.pdf
Porter, K.A., and K. Ramer, 2012 (expected). A performance-based earthquake engineering method to estimate downtime in critical facilities. Proc. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, 24-28 Sep 2012, paper number 4523, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2012-15WCEE-Downtime.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2011. A Brief History of PBEE-2. A lecture to the University of Colorado at Boulder's Department of Civil Engineering, graduate course CVEN 5835-02
SPTPS: Nonlinear Structural Analysis, Theory & Applications. February 17, 2011. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-CU-PBEE2-fragility.pdf. See also Practical Development and
Application of Fragility
Functions, above, and PBEE-2 Simulation Exercise, below.
Porter, K.A., 2011. PBEE-2 Simulation Exercise. A lecture to the University of Colorado at Boulder's Department of Civil Engineering, graduate course CVEN 5835-02
SPTPS: Nonlinear Structural Analysis, Theory & Applications. April 21, 2011. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-CU-PBEE2-exercise.pdf. See also Practical Development and
Application of Fragility
Functions, and A Brief History of PBEE-2, above.
Porter, K.A., H. Ishida, K. Torisawa, and M. Miyamura, 2010. Enhancing Nonstructural Fragility Analysis for Essential Facilities. Consortium of Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering, Richmond CA
Porter, K.A., R. Graves, E. Reis, and P. Somerville, 2007. Index
Woodframe Houses and their Response to Puente Hills Scenario Earthquakes.
Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA. 120 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2007-SCEC-CEA.pdf
Scawthorn, C. 2008. A brief history of seismic risk assessment. In A. Bostrom, S. French and S. Gottlieb, eds., Risk Assessment, Modeling, and Decision Support: Strategic Directions, Springer, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Scawthorn-2008-History.pdf
Porter, K.A., X. Xu, and S. Krishnan, 2006. Analysis of Simultaneous
Operational Failure of Critical Facilities due to Earthquake, for a
California Utility. California Institute of Technology, Pasadena CA. 111
Porter, K.A., 2006. Evaluating Premium Incentives for the California
Earthquake Authority. California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
60 pp., http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2006-CEA-premium-incentives.pdf, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2006-CEA-appendices.pdf
Porter, K.A.,C.R. Scawthorn, and J.L. Beck, 2006. Cost-effectiveness of
stronger woodframe buildings. Earthquake Spectra 22 (1), February
2006, 239-266, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2006-woodframe.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2006. The Value of
Seismically Strengthening a House, a Nontechnical Overview.
Presentation to Professionals in Real Estate, Pasadena, CA, November 10,
Porter, K.A., 2005. A Taxonomy of
Building Components for Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering. PEER
Report No, 2005/03, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center,
Berkeley, CA, 58 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2005-Taxonomy.pdf
Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, R.V. Shaikhutdinov, S.K. Au, K. Mizukoshi, M.
Miyamura, H. Ishida, T. Moroi, Y. Tsukada, and M. Masuda, 2004. Effect of
seismic risk on lifetime property value. Earthquake Spectra, 20 (4),
Nov 2004, 1211-1237. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2004-LPV.pdf
Multihazards Mitigation Council, 2005. Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves: An Independent Study to Assess the Future savings from Mitigation Activities. National Institute of Building Sciences, Washington DC. http://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.nibs.org/resource/resmgr/MMC/hms_vol1.pdf,
Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, and R.V. Shaikhutdinov, 2004. Simplified
estimation of economic seismic risk for buildings. Earthquake Spectra,
20 (4), Nov 2004, 1239-1264. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2004-PFL.pdf
Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, H.A. Seligson, C.R. Scawthorn, L.T. Tobin, and
T. Boyd, 2002. Improving Loss Estimation for Woodframe Buildings,
Consortium of Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering, Richmond,
CA, 136 pp., http://resolver.caltech.edu/caltechEERL:2002.EERL-2002-01 (main report)
Porter, K.A., 2003. An overview of PEER’s performance-based earthquake
engineering methodology. Proc. Ninth International Conference on
Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP9) July 6-9, 2003, San Francisco, CA. Civil Engineering Risk and Reliability
Association (CERRA), 973-980. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2003-PBEE-Overview.pdf
Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, and R.V. Shaikhutdinov, 2002. Sensitivity of
building loss estimates to major uncertain variables. Earthquake Spectra, 18
(4), 719-743. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2002-Sensitivity.pdf
Porter, K.A., A.S. Kiremidjian, and J.S. LeGrue, 2001. Assembly-based
vulnerability of buildings and its use in performance evaluation. Earthquake Spectra, 17 (2), 291-312. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2001-ABV.pdf
Porter, K.A. and A.S. Kiremidjian, 2001. Verifying performance-based
design objectives using assembly-based vulnerability. ICOSSAR ’01
Structural Safety and Reliability, Newport Beach, California, USA, June
17 - 21, 2001, paper FCO225. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2001-Verifying-PBEE.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2000. Assembly-Based Vulnerability of Buildings and its Uses in Seismic Performance Evaluation and Risk-Management Decision-Making. Doctoral thesis. Stanford University, Stanford CA, 216 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2000-ABV-thesis.pdf
Fire following earthquake
Anderson D., Davidson RA, Himoto K, and Scawthorn C. 2016. "Statistical Modeling of Fire Occurrence Using Data from the Tōhoku, Japan Earthquake and Tsunami." Risk Analysis 36(2):378-95. (available here)
Workshop on Fires following a Mw 7 Haywired Earthquake. Powerpoint presentation here.
Davidson, R. A., Kendra, J., Sizheng Li, Long, L. C., McEntire, D. A., and Scawthorn, C. (2012). San Bruno California, September 9, 2010 Gas Pipeline Explosion and Fire. Final Project Report No. 56, accessible at http://udspace.udel.edu/handle/19716/11337, Disaster Research Center, University of Delaware, Newark, 210.
Scawthorn, C. (2011) Water Supply In Regards to Fire Following Earthquakes. pp. 173. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, College of Engineering, University of California, sponsored by the California Seismic Safety Commission, Berkeley. Water Supply in regard to Fire Following Earthquake - Scawthorn FINAL PEER Report 2011. A four page summary of the report is available here
Scawthorn, C. (2011). Fire following earthquake aspects of the Southern San Andreas Fault Mw 7.8 earthquake scenario. Earthquake Spectra 27 (2), 419-441. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Scawthorn-2011-ShakeOut-FFE.pdf
Scawthorn, C. (2010) Analysis of Fire Following Earthquake Potential for San Francisco, California pp. 54. SPA Risk LLC Berkeley CA 94708 for the Applied Technology Council On behalf of the Department of Building Inspection City and County of San Francisco, San Francisco. SPA San Francisco CAPSS Fire Following Earthquake Oct 2010
SPA Risk (2009) Enhancements in HAZUS-MH Fire Following Earthquake, Task 3: Updated Ignition Equation pp. 74pp. SPA Risk LLC, Berkeley CA. Principal Investigator C. Scawthorn. Prepared for PBS&J and the National Institute of Building Sciences, San Francisco. FFE Ignition Equations - Scawthorn16 April 09
Scawthorn, C. . 2008. "Enhancements in HAZUS-MH Fire Following Earthquake." Pp. 45pp: SPA Risk LLC Prepared for PBS&J and the National Institute of Building Sciences. (available here)
Scawthorn, C. (2008) Fire Following Earthquake, Supplemental Study for the ShakeOut Scenario. The ShakeOut Scenario: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 2008-1150, California Geological Survey Preliminary Report 2 version 1.0, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1324, California Geological Survey Special Report 207 version 1.0. U. S. Geological Survey and California Geological Survey, Pasadena. Scawthorn-2008-ShakeOut-FFE
Lee, S., Davidson, R., Ohnishi, N. & Scawthorn, C. (2008) Fire Following Earthquake - Reviewing the State-of-the-Art of Modeling. Earthquake Spectra, 24, 933-967pp. Lee et al 2008 FFE - SOA Review - EQ Spectra
Scawthorn, C., O'Rourke, T. D. & Blackburn, F. T. (2006) The 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and Fire---Enduring Lessons for Fire Protection and Water Supply. Earthquake Spectra, 22, S135-S158. 06 Spectra 1906 SF EQ and Fire - Enduring Lessons CRS TDO FTB
Scawthorn, C. (1987). Fire following earthquake: Estimates of the conflagration risk to insured property in greater Los Angeles and San Francisco, All-Industry Research Advisory Council, Oak Brook, Ill. For a copy, click here
Fragility and vulnerability of buildings
Porter, K.A., 2017. A Beginner's Guide to Fragility, Vulnerability, and Risk. 103 pp., http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-beginners-guide.pdf
Porter, K., 2017. When addressing epistemic uncertainty in a lognormal fragility function, how should one adjust the median? Paper 2617, Proc., 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Santiago Chile, January 9 to 13, 2017 http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2016-16WCEE-Rotation-point.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2015. Dollars, deaths, and downtime:understand your building's seismic risk and how to evaluate it. A presentation to SEAOSC Strengthening Our Cities Summit
5 Nov 2015, Los Angeles, CA. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2015-SEAOSC-3D.pdf
SPA Risk LLC and Henderson Creative, 2014. Mobile Homes in Earthquakes: How to Protect your Home and Family. Prepared for California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, 2 pp, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/SPA-2014-Mobile-Homes-in-Earthquakes.pdf
Cho, I.H. and K.A. Porter, 2013. Three Techniques for Modeling Building Classes using Moment Matching. SESM 13-01, Structural Engineering and Structural Mechanics Program, Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Cho-2013-SESM-building-classes.pdf
K. Farokhnia and K.A. Porter, 2012. Estimating the Non-Structural Seismic Vulnerability of Building Categories. Proc. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, 24-28 Sep 2012, paper number 3900, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Farokhnia-2012-15WCEE-Nonstructural.pdf
Porter, K.A., K. Farokhnia, I.H. Cho, T. Rossetto, I. Ioannou, D. Grant, K. Jaiswal, D. Wald, D. D’Ayala, A. Meslem, E. So, A.S. Kiremidjian & H.Y. Noh, 2012 (expected). Global vulnerability estimation methods for the Global Earthquake Model. Proc. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, 24-28 Sep 2012, paper number 4504, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2012-15WCEE-GEM-Vulnerability.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2011. Practical Development and
Application of Fragility
Functions. A lecture to the University of Colorado at Boulder's Department of Civil Engineering, graduate course CVEN 5835-02
SPTPS: Nonlinear Structural Analysis, Theory & Applications. April 19, 2011. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-CU-PBEE2-fragility.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2010. Cracking an open safe: uncertainty in HAZUS-based seismic vulnerability functions. Earthquake Spectra, 26 (3), 893-900 http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-Safecrack-COV.pdf
Porter, K.A., G. Johnson, R. Sheppard, and R. Bachman, 2010. Fragility of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing equipment. Earthquake Spectra 26 (2) 451-472, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-MEP-fragility-1.pdf
Porter, K.A., and K. Cobeen, 2009. Loss estimates for large soft-story woodframe buildings in San Francisco. Proc. ATC & SEI 2009 Conference on Improving the Seismic Performance of Existing Buildings and Other Structures. Dec 9-11, 2009, San Francisco, CA, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2009-CAPSS-1.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2009. Component Fragility Functions for Older Woodframe Construction. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2009-CAPSS-Fragility.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2009. Seismic Vulnerability of Four Soft-Story Woodframe Index Buildings and their Retrofits. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2009-CAPSS-Vulnerability.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2009. CAPSS Soft-Story Loss Study. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2009-CAPSS-Loss.pdf
Samant, L.D., K. Porter, K. Cobeen, L.T. Tobin, L. Kornfield, H. Seligson, S. Alejandrino, and J. Kidd, 2009. Mitigating San Francisco’s soft-story building problem. Proc. ATC & SEI 2009 Conference on Improving the Seismic Performance of Existing Buildings and Other Structures. Dec 9-11, 2009, San Francisco, CA, paper 109, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Samant-2009-CAPSS-Mitigation.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2009. Cracking an open safe: more HAZUS vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent spectral acceleration. Earthquake Spectra 25 (3), 607-618, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2009-Safecrack-MDF.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2009. Cracking an open safe: HAZUS vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent spectral acceleration. Earthquake Spectra 25 (2), 361-378, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2009-Safecrack-Casualty.pdf
Porter, K.A., R.P. Kennedy, and R.E. Bachman, 2007. Creating fragility
functions for performance-based earthquake engineering. Earthquake
Spectra 23 (2), May 2007, 471-489, DOI:10.1193/1.2720892,
Porter, K.A., R.O. Hamburger, and R.P Kennedy, 2007. Practical
development and application of fragility functions. Proc. SEI Structures
Congress, May 16-19, 2007, Long Beach CA.
Porter, K.A., 2007. Fragility of hydraulic elevators for use in
performance-based earthquake engineering. Earthquake Spectra. 23 (2),
May 2007, 459-469, DOI:10.1193/1.2720902,
Porter, K.A., R.P. Kennedy, and R.E. Bachman, 2006. Developing
Fragility Functions for Building Components. A Report to ATC-58. Applied
Technology Council, Redwood City, CA, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2006-deriving-fragility.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2000. Assembly-Based Vulnerability of Buildings and its Uses in Seismic Performance Evaluation and Risk-Management Decision-Making. Doctoral thesis. Stanford University, Stanford CA, 216 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2000-ABV-thesis.pdf
Fragility and vulnerability of lifelines
Scawthorn, C.R., K.A., Porter, and F.T. Blackburn, 1992. Performance of emergency-response services after the earthquake. In T.D. O'Rourke, ed., The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989-Marina District. Strong Motion and Ground Failure. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1551-F. Reston VA, p. F195-F215. www.sparisk.com/pubs/Scawthorn-1992-LP89-Emergency-services-Marina.pdf
Porter, K.A. C. Scawthorn, D.G. Honegger, T.D. O'Rourke, and F. Blackburn, 1992.
Performance of water supply pipelines in liquefied soil. Proceedings of
the 4th US-Japan Workshop on Earthquake Disaster Prevention for Lifeline
Systems, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 08/19-21/91; pp. 3-17. 1992. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-1992-water-pipe-liquefied-soil.pdf
Scawthorn, C., K. Porter, M. Khater, D. Seidel, D. Ballantyne, H.T. Taylor, R.D. Darragh, and C. Ng, 1992. Utility performance aspects, liquefaction study, Marina and Sullivan Marsh areas, San Francisco California. National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, Proceedings from the 4th Japan-U.S. Workshop on Earthquake Resistant Design of Lifeline Facilities and Countermeasures for Soil Liquefaction: Tokai University Pacific Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, May 27-29, 1992. Vol. 1., 1992, 317-333. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Scawthorn-1992-SF-Liquefaction-Study.pdf
Disaster planning scenarios: ShakeOut, ARkStorm, SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, and HayWired
Porter, K., S. Terentieff, R. McMullin, and X. Irias, 2017. Water supply damage, recovery, and lifeline interaction in an earthquake sequence. Proc. First Congress on Technical Advancement, September 10-13, 2017, Duluth, Minnesota. Reston Virginia: American Society of Civil Engineers. 12 p. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2017-ASCE-CUWNet.pdf
Porter, K.A., and A.M. Wein, 2014. Engineering and economic lessons of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Proceedings of the 10th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 21-25 July 2014, Anchorage AK http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-Wein-2014-10NCEE-tsunami-scenario.pdf
Porter, K.A., and A.M. Wein, 2014. Advances in tsunami risk assessment. SSA 2014, 2 May 2014, Anchorage AK http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-Wein-2014-SSA2014-tsunami-scenario.pdf
Porter, K., 2014. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, a Presentation to NORTHCOM Joint Interagency Coordination Group, 25 Feb 2014, Colorado Springs CO. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-25-Feb-2014-SAFRR-Northcom.pdf
Porter, K., W. Byers, D. Dykstra, A. Lim, P. Lynett, J. Ratliff, C. Scawthorn, A. Wein, and R. Wilson, 2013. The SAFRR tsunami scenario—physical damage in California. S. Ross and L. Jones, Eds, The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario. US Geological Survey.
Ross, S.L., L.M. Jones, K. Miller, K.A. Porter, A. Wein, R.I. Wilson, B. Bahng, A. Barberopoulou, J.C. Borrero, D.M. Brosnan, J.T. Bwarie, E.L. Geist, L.A. Johnson, S.H. Kirby, W.R. Knight, K. Long, P. Lynett, C.E. Mortensen, D.J. Nicolsky, S.C. Perry, G.S. Plumlee, C.R. Real, K. Ryan, E. Suleimani, H.K. Thio, V.V. Titov, P.M. Whitmore, and N.J. Wood, 2013. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario—executive summary and Introduction. S. Ross and L. Jones, Eds, The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario. US Geological Survey. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/
Ross, S.L., Jones, L.M., Miller, K., Porter, K.A., Wein, A., Wilson, R.I., Bahng, B., Barberopoulou, A., Borrero, J.C., Brosnan, D.M., Bwarie, J.T., Geist, E.L., Johnson, L.A., Kirby, S.H., Knight, W.R., Long, K., Lynett, P., Mortensen, C.E., Nicolsky, D.J., Perry, S.C., Plumlee, G.S., Real, C.R., Ryan, K., Suleimani, E., Thio, H., Titov, V.V., Whitmore, P.M., and Wood, N.J., 2013, The SAFRR tsunami scenario—Improving resilience for California: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2013–3081, 4 p., http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3081/
Porter, K., L Jones, S Ross, J Borrero, J Bwarie, D Dykstra, EL Geist, L Johnson, S Kirby, K Long, P Lynett, K Miller, C Mortensen, S Perry, G Plumlee, C Real, L Ritchie, C Scawthorn, HK Thio, A Wein, P Whitmore, R Wilson, and N Wood, 2013. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Proc., PORTS ’13, August 25-28, Seattle WA. manuscript: http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2013-COPRI-Tsunami-MS.pdf, conference presentation: http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2013-COPRI-Tsunami-presentation.pdf
Porter, K., A. Wein, C. Alpers, A. Baez, P. Barnard, J. Carter, A. Corsi, J. Costner, D. Cox, T. Das, M. Dettinger, J. Done, C. Eadie, M. Eymann, J. Ferris, P. Gunturi, M. Hughes, R. Jarrett, L. Johnson, H.D. Le-Griffin, D. Mitchell, S. Morman, P. Neiman, A. Olsen, S. Perry, G. Plumlee, M. Ralph, D. Reynolds, A. Rose, K. Schaefer, J. Serakos, W. Siembieda, J. Stock, D. Strong, I.S. Wing, A. Tang, P. Thomas, and K. Topping, 2010. Overview of the ARkStorm Scenario. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1312, 183 pp. and appendices, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-ARkStorm.pdf
Porter, K., K. Hudnut, S. Perry, M. Reichle, C. Scawthorn, and A. Wein, 2011. Foreword. Earthquake Spectra 27 (2), 235-237. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-ShakeOut-Foreword.pdf
Porter, K., L. Jones, D. Cox, J. Goltz, K. Hudnut, D. Mileti, S. Perry, D. Ponti, M. Reichle, A.Z. Rose, C.R. Scawthorn, H.A. Seligson, K.I. Shoaf, J. Treiman, and A. Wein, 2011. The ShakeOut Scenario: a hypothetical Mw7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. Earthquake Spectra 27 (2), 239-261, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-ShakeOut-Overview.pdf.
Porter, K.A., and R. Sherrill, 2011. Utility performance panels in the ShakeOut Scenario. Earthquake Spectra 27 (2), 443-458, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-ShakeOut-Panels.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2008. The Shake Out Scenario, A Hypothetical M7.8 Southern San Andreas Fault Earthquake. Structure Magazine, Dec 2008, 16-19. http://www.structuremag.org/article.aspx?articleID=812
Jones, L.M., R. Bernknopf, D. Cox, J. Goltz, K. Hudnut, D. Mileti, S. Perry, D. Ponti, K. Porter, M. Reichle, H. Seligson, K. Shoaf, J. Treiman, and A. Wein, 2008. The ShakeOut Scenario. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1150 and California Geological Survey Preliminary Report 25, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/
USGS. (2003). "The Plan to Coordinate Nehrp Post-Earthquake Investigations,." USGS Circular 1242, Thomas L. Holzer (Chair), Roger D. Borcherdt, Craig D. Comartin, Robert D. Hanson, Charles R. Scawthorn, Kathleen Tierney, T. Leslie Youd,, ed., prepared in coordination with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Science Foundation, and National Institute of Standards and Technology, USGS Western Region, Menlo Park CA. http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1242/
Holzer, T. L., Scawthorn, C., and Rojahn, C. (2005). "Coordinating Nehrp Post-Earthquake Investigations - Exercising the Plan." Earthquake Spectra, 21(4), 1043-1062. Earthquake Spectra 2005
Scawthorn, C., 2004. Development and Facilitation of Tabletop Exercises in Support of the Plan to Coordinate Nehrp Post-Earthquake Investigations, Final Report. C. Scawthorn Assoc., prepared for the U.S. Geological Survey and the Applied Technology Council, Berkeley, 62 pp. ATC-35 NEHRP Exercises Final Report
Hurricanes, atmospheric rivers, and wind hazard
Porter, K.A., 2008. 0.05-degree Gridded Wind Hazard of the United States. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2008-US-wind-hazard.zip
Mosqueda, G. and K.A. Porter, 2006. Preliminary conclusions: assessing
damage to engineered buildings in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.
Structural Engineer, February 2006, 20-26.
Mosqueda, G., K.A. Porter, J. O’Connor, and P. McAnany, 2007. Damage to
engineered buildings and bridges in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Proc.
SEI Structures Congress, May 16-19, 2007, Long Beach CA.
Larsen, T., K. Porter, M. Zadeh, C. Van Anne, and C. Scawthorn, 1999. Impact of Hurricane Andrew on Performance, Interaction, and Recovery of Lifelines. Prepared for National Science Foundation. EQE International, Oakland CA. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Larsen-1996-Andrew-Lifelines.pdf
Casualty loss estimation
Porter, K.A., K. Shoaf, and H. Seligson, 2006. Value of injuries in the
Northridge Earthquake. Earthquake Spectra, 22 (2), May 2006.
Porter, K.A., 2018. Is life safety enough?Improvements in earthquake science and risk reduction. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2018 Annual Meeting,
February 15-19, 2018, Austin, Texas, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2018-AAAS.pdf
Davis, M. and K. Porter, 2016. The public's role in seismic design provisions. Earthquake Spectra, preprint, doi:10.1193/081715EQS127M, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Davis-Porter-2016-EQS-Ethics.pdf
Porter, K. and M. Davis, 2015. Not safe enough: the public's expectations of seismic performance. Journal of the National Institute of Building Sciences, 3 (5) 22-25. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-Davis-2015-JNIBS-Not-safe-enough.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2014. Safe enough? How buildings codes protect our lives but not our cities. Proceedings of the 10th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 21-25 July 2014, Anchorage AK, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2014-10NCEE-safe-enough.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2013. Safe enough? How buildings codes protect our lives but not our cities. Phi Beta Kappa Northern California Association 26th Asilomar Conference, February 15-18, 2012, and University of Colorado Boulder SESM Seminar 1 Mar 2013, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2013-CU-Safe-Enough.pdf
Porter, K.A., C. Scawthorn, C. Taylor, N. Blais, 1998. Appropriate
Seismic Reliability for Critical Equipment Systems: Recommendations Based on
Regional Analysis of Financial and Life Loss. MCEER-98-0016,
Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, State
University of New York, Buffalo, NY, 104 pp.
Real-time loss estimation
Wald, D., K.W. Lin, K. Porter, and L. Turner, 2008. ShakeCast: automating
and improving the use of ShakeMap for post-earthquake decision-making and
response. Earthquake Spectra, 24 (2), 533-553,
Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, J.Y. Ching, and J. Mitrani-Reiser, 2004. Real-Time Loss Estimation for Instrumented Buildings. Report EERL 2004-08,
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA.
Porter, K.A., J. Mitrani-Reiser, J.L. Beck, and J.Y, Ching, 2006. Smarter
structures: real-time loss estimation for instrumented buildings, paper
NCEE-1236. Proc., 8th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, April
18-22, 2006, San Francisco, CA.
Porter, K., E. Field, and K. Milner, 2017.
Trimming a hazard logic tree with a new model-order-reduction technique. Earthquake Spectra, 33 (3), 857-874,
Porter, K., 2016. Can one divide uncertainty into two kinds? Risk Basics 1, SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, p. 1-4, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2016-Two-Kinds-of-Uncertainty.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2013. A Field Sampling Strategy for Estimating a Building Inventory. Global Earthquake Model, 30 pp. http://www.nexus.globalquakemodel.org/gem-idct/posts/idct-sampling-strategy-protocol/ or http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2013-GEMIDCT-Sampling-Strategy.pdf
Porter, K.A., E.H. Field, and K. Milner, 2012. Trimming the UCERF2 hazard logic tree. Seismological Research Letters, 83 (5), 815-828, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2012-SRL-Tree-trim.pdf
Lloyds Market Academy. (2011). "California Earthquake Risk, Report from the Lma Lloyd’s Market Academy Earthquake Seminar in San Francisco." Lloyd's Market Association, available here or at http://www.lmalloyds.com, London, 44 pp.
Olsen, A.H. and K.A. Porter, 2011. On the Contribution of Reconstruction Labor Wages and Material Prices to Demand Surge. SESM-11-1, Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado at Boulder, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Olsen-2011-SESM-Demand-Surge.pdf
Olsen, A.H. and K.A. Porter, 2011. What we know about demand surge: a brief summary. Natural Hazards Review 12 (2), 62-71, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Olsen-2011-NHR-WWKADS.pdf
Olsen, A.H. and K.A. Porter, 2010. What We Know about Demand Surge. Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, SESM-10-1, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Olsen-2010-CU-WWKADS.pdf
Jaiswal, K., D. Wald, and K. Porter, 2010. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management. Earthquake Spectra 26 (3) 731-748, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Jaiswal-2010-PAGER-inventory.pdf
Porter, K.A. and L. Jones, 2010. Ten tips for talking to townies:
observations on risk communication from
the Multihazards Demonstration Project. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 13-17, 2010, San Francisco, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-AGU-10-tips.pdf
SPA Risk LLC, 2009. Data Interchange Formats for the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). Denver CO, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/SPA-2009-GEM1-DIFs.pdf
Porter, K.A., and C.R. Scawthorn, 2009. Development of Open Source Seismic Risk Modeling Framework. Report to the US Geological Survey under award no 07HQAG0002, SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/SPA-2009-OpenRisk.pdf
Porter, K.A., and C.R. Scawthorn, 2007. OpenRisk: Open-Source Risk Estimation Software, SPA Risk, Pasadena, CA, 112 pp., http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/SPA-2007-OpenRisk.pdf
Porter, K.A., 1990. Design of Single-Plate Shear Connectors with Short Slotted Holes. Master's thesis, University of California Berkeley, 113 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-1990-Shear-tabs-short-slotted-holes.pdf
Field data collection and learning from earthquakes
SPA Risk LLC, 2014. 24 August 2014 South Napa Mw 6 Earthquake Reconnaissance Report. 62 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/SPA-2014-Napa-Report.pdf
Scawthorn, C. and K.A. Porter, 2011. Reconnaissance Report. Aspects of the 11 March 2011 Eastern Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. SPA Risk LLC, 71 pp., http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/SPA-2011-Tohoku-Report.pdf
Scawthorn, C., J. Kiyono and H. Sakai (2011) Initial Survey, 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami, 9 pgs.
Porter, K.A., B. Bell, and N. Pereira, 2011. Free, fast building seismic safety inspection software for smartphones. Building Safety Journal Online, Dec 2011, 56-62. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-BSJ-ROVER.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2010. Rapid Observation of Vulnerability and Estimation of Risk (ROVER): end-to-end seismic risk management software. Proc 9th US National/10th Canadian Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 25-29 Jul 2010, Toronto Canada, MS 1781, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-9USN10CCEE-ROVER.pdf
SPA Risk LLC, 2010. ROVER: Rapid Observation of Vulnerability and
Estimation of Risk. Denver, CO.
Porter, K.A., 2003. Learning from earthquakes: a survey of surveys. Keynote paper, EERI Invitational Workshop: An Action Plan to Develop Earthquake Damage and Loss Data Protocols, September 19th and 20th, 2002, Doubletree Hotel, Pasadena, California. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2003-Survey-of-Surveys.pdf and http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2003-Survey-of-Surveys-Appendix.pdf
March 2, 2011: Open-source risk vs. Proprietary risk models, a talk presented by Charles Scawthorn as part of a Distance Learning Seminar Series on Disaster Risk Management in East Asia and the Pacific, sponsored by the World Bank. Dr. Scawthorn spoke in favor of Open Source Risk Models to an audience at many places around the world, including Indonesia (Jakarta), Lao PDR (Vientiane), Thailand (Bangkok), Vietnam (Hanoi), Cambodia (Phnom Penh), China (Beijing), Mongolia (Ulaanbaatar), Philippines (Manila), Singapore (Singapore), Japan (Tokyo) and Fiji (Suva). View the 33 minute presentation here.
October 2010: ARkStorm, the Other Big One, a talk presented by Keith Porter to the Engineers' Forum, a seminar series sponsored by the East Bay Municipal Utilities District. Dr Porter gave an overview of an emergency planning scenario describing a hypothetical but realistic severe winter storm in California, and its impacts on the state's infrastructure, population, and economy. View the 50-minute presentation here
October 2015: "Earthquakes in Your Backyard": Guest lecture by Charles Scawthorn in UC Berkeley course EPS 20 in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Univ. of California at Berkeley, available here